Sportstrading


ARBITRAGE.
And a word about Arbitrage -- the close relative of Trading.
A knowledge and usage of arbitrage can add an aditional top-up to the Sportstrader's weekly income.

Arbitrage: An arbitraging opportunity raises its pretty head when different bookmakers form different opinions on the possible outcome of a sporting event and offer different odds on that outcome. The sportstrader can profit on the imbalance between the different bookmaker prices. Normally, arbitrage will be conducted on a market in which there are two contestants, e.g., golf, tennis, boxing.
Consider the basic example below.

Bookmaker 1 Bookmaker 2
Tennis Player "A" 2.0 1.8
Tennis Player "B" 1.7 2.2

A 100 unit bet on Player A with Bookmaker 1 will returm a profit of 100 units if Player A wins.

A   91 unit  bet on Player B with Bookmaker 2 will return a profit of 109 units if Player  B wins.


Irrespective of which player wins the game, an overall profit of 9 units is achieved. This 4.5% profit on capital outlay would be fairly typical of the profit turnover associatted with arbitrage. ___________________________________________________________________________

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Once or twice a day the sharp-eyed sportstrader will notice a horseracing arbitraging opportunity between a bookmaker and Betfair.At the time of writing, the Curragh 14:45 race is three hours away.

A quick scan of Oddschecker shows that one particular bookmaking firm (Bet365) is a "stand-out" 6/1 price for the favourite SEA LORD. Scanning over to the extreme right-hand-side of Oddschecker we see that current Betfair odds about SEA LORD are 49/10...............or approximately 5/1 if expressed in usual bookmaking fractionals. This would indicate a definite arbitraging opportunity that cannot be passed up.  

A more detailed examination of the Betfair market on the race is called for. Opening the Betfair screen confirms the profit-taking opportunity surtrounding SEA LORD.

Firstly, it is highly likely that Sea Lord's odds of 6.2 will contract further judging by the weight of money trying to Back it at 6.4, and by the readily identifiable downward trend. It should contract to at least 6.0 (The price subsequently collapsed to 5.5)

So putting in a Lay bet at 6.0 (5/1) on Betfair and making a Back bet at 6/1 with Bet365 will lock-in a guaranteed profit irrespective of whether SEA Lord wins or loses. An "All-Green" situation!

Back SEA LORD with Bet365 ............ £100 @ 6/1 = £600 potential profit.

Lay  SEA LORD  on Betfair ..................£585@ 6.0 = £117 potential profit.

An instant  guaranteed profit of £15-£17 irrespective of the result. Viva Arbitrage !

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There are a couple of risks associated with arbitrage, but with some application these risks can be managed or eliminated entirely.

Risk 1: After executing the Back bet of one side of the arbitrage, the odds on the opponent may have been contracted by the other bookmaker or in a worst case scenario may have been withdrawn completely.
Solution: Have two windows open -- one for each bookmaker -- and have the correct amount to be wagered already ticked for each selection.
When the first bet has been entered and receipt-ed, the second bet must be immediately made.

Risk 2: Palpaple Error. On a rare occasion a bookmaker may make a genuine error; instead of a general 2/1 on offer with other bookmakers, a particular firm may have an advertised price of 22/1. This is clearly a mistake.
Errors such as these can NOT be exploited. If you submit a bet taking the 22/1 and if it is accepted, the bookmaker has the get-out clause of Palpaple Error and he is not obliged to pay out at those odds. Yur bet will be settled at 2/1.
Solution: Carefully scrutinize such offered odds when they arise. The old adage holds true: if something seems too good, then it probably is.
Check the odds on offer from other bookmakers on Oddschecker; if there seems an enormous divergence between the bookmaker and all the others then this is likely an example of palpable error. Any difference greater than 25% should raise suspicions.